The Strategy, And The Jagaban Outcome In Nigerian Election

A few weeks ago, I wrote a poem titled “The Colour of Courage” to celebrate the Sheikh who spat in the face of those who tried to muzzle him and force him out of the Apo mosque where he was Imam. All this to force him to recant his political beliefs and summersault his damning assessment of the powers that be.

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Below is the last stanza from that poem:

• Now I know what I sought all along
• Thought would take a lifetime to find
• Has just arrived on a plata of gold
• The Color of Courage is this Shiekh’s turban!

The outcome of the APC Presidential primary at Eagle Square could have fitted the title of that poem. It was another demonstration of Courage in the political space. This is not an endorsement of the Jagaban for Presidency.

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At least not yet. But love him or hate him, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BAT), the Jagaban Borgu has demonstrated grit, charisma, roforofo expertise, pecuniary catch-me-if-you-can, and a never-say-die attitude while running the gauntlet! How

I wish we can deploy this level of commitment and skill in the battle to save Nigeria from anarchy and doom. That will be the day!

BAT has said he has never lost an election (which my East African friend mispronounced as erection!). Many had thought, and rightly so, that there is always a first time.

Like Atiku thought till he met his OBJ nemesis after he and Ibori made the man with a massive ego look small at a certain Presidential primary event.

Those who thought Jagaban’s dénouement had come are shocked that the man’s staying power and his ability to out-maneuver the fox are simply unassailable.

How did he get the Northern Governors to push a methodology that made his victory a foregone conclusion? My take is that the claim by those potentates and analysts that their maneuver was driven by patriotic instincts, a sense of fairness, and the pursuit of democratic ideals is a bit off the mark and, at best, self-serving.

That’s what smart folks do when they know where the pendulum is going to swing and they quickly take measures to be seen as being supportive of the winning side. Smart Alecs all.

Anyone who thinks the Jagaban could not have pulled a win against an Ahmed Lawan, even if supported by the Principalities at Aso Rock, must have done his research without backup facts and history.

It was even amazing to onlooking non-APC folks like me that there are forces who think this our Nigeria with tattered garments, purulent sores, empty ban and tottering along buffeted on all sides by bandits, kidnappers, insurgents, ISWA and over-leveraged to China, can be managed by an amateur like Lawan.

It was insulting to this country, and a cynical move indeed, to indicate that anyone, just anyone, can be President of this country, even if all his experience is approving loans requests by the Presidency. No, sir! The presidency is very serious business.

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A Lawan beating a Tinubu to clinch the Presidential primary of a major, even the ruling, party would have shown the world the 3rd division league we intend to perpetually play in! A respectable party Chair that announced such a dubious consensus ought to resign!

I am sure BAT could have gone to the moon to ensure he does not suffer such indignity after his stellar performance at Alausa and his defeat of OBJ in the go-no-go tango over Local Government creation.

BAT did not blink and ran Lagos without the LG funds the President seized. He grew IGR and made the siezed funds compulsory savings for the state. A less imaginative and less courageous Governor would have taken that imbroglio as alibi for non-performance, but not the Jagaban. He soldiered on.

So, congrats to Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, on his well-deserved victory. Monetary inducement alone could not have wrought that landside. I am sure he cashed many political IOUs along the way. Quid pro quo with a national spread can only yield such dividends. It did for MKO too. He worked hard for, and deserved the outcome of that primary.

However, that was the first battle in a long war. He must now strategise on the next series of battles to determine the winner among himself, Atiku and Peter Obi.

To take any of them for granted would be foolhardy. So is the need to manage communications and stop treating those he has helped along the way as almajiris. Dapo Abiodun’s case comes to mind.

Even the Buhari call-out, though that may have been part of blackmail strategy and it worked. I am very familiar with BAT’s democratic credentials and NADECO sacrifices as documented in Wole Soyinka’s ‘You Must Set Forth At Dawn’.

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I will stop here since I have not been recruited as a consultant on his team and I am not of APC coloration but just an analyst intrigued by his grit, strategic thinking and result-yielding actions.

That Edo-No-Bi-Lagos mantra was not just sing song, it was a reaction to perceived empire-building territorial annexation. Such should be avoided this time around with respect which should be reciprocally spread around. Jagaban radiated the color of courage in that Eagle Square duel and came out without a single bruise.

Lagos. 11th June, 2022 – Austin Isikhuemen

Download the first chapter of The Storytelling Series: Beginners’ Guide for Small Businesses & Content Creators by Obehi Ewanfoh.