Understanding The Wike (Minister of the Federal Capital Territory of Nigeria) Calculus by Austin Isikhuemen

Austin Isikhuemen | Contributor on politics and business-related topics

I am sure not many Nigerians will disagree with my assertion in this piece that the Honourable Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Chief, Honourable, Barrister Nyesom Wike, has become a major issue in Nigerian politics since the 2023 Presidential elections. 

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As governor of Rivers State, his image and persona were already large in the public space.  He was the governor who held most press briefings and press conferences with TV crews from the most-watched Television outfits across Nigeria.

He must be given credit too for credible performance, though some would argue that anyone with the humongous resources of Rivers State cannot but perform as he has done.

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As a two-term governor serving his second term as the elections of 2023 drew near, the next office Wike eyed was the Presidency.  This ambition, driven by a feeling that he had served Rivers state well and therefore deserved a promotion, was also probably given impetus by the man’s sense of entitlement as the one who was the major funder of his party, the PDP.

The party had been out of power at the center since 2015, and as Nigerian party politics go, it is public funds that leak through opaque channels to fund the political parties. Additionally, it was obvious that following the accepted order of North-South presidential power rotation, it was the turn of the South. And Wike is a Southerner.

Wike must have felt he was dealt a cruel hand not only by His Excellency Atiku Abubakar’s effrontery to run for the Presidency but that he went on to win the primary and became the candidate.

It had been settled that the Presidency would go to the South, and Atiku hails from Adamawa State in the North. Wike did not waste time in venting his bile against this turn of events.

It was visible to all that his key objective was to stop Atiku from becoming President. If his dollars and influence could not stop Atiku at the primaries, he kept his “gunpowder” dry for the general elections of 2023.

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His deployment of guile and subterfuge during the campaigns was so well crafted that he left folks guessing what his real maneuver was going to be at the elections.  He welcomed Kwankwaso of NNPP with open hands.

His reception of Peter Obi, the new kid on the block whose whirlwind was blowing across the country and in the diaspora, was a bold statement of support, or so people thought.

His walk among cheering crowds of Obidients and other citizens and residents of the Garden City, with vehicles rumored to have been donated in support of Obi’s campaign in tow, convinced many that Wike was supporting Peter Obi after his spat with Atiku!

On 13 February 2023, after the APC campaign rally in Port Harcourt, senior APC figures like Abdullahi Adamu, Kassim Shettima, and then-candidate Asiwaju Bola Tinubu paid Wike a courtesy call. 

They came ostensibly to solicit his support for the APC presidential candidate in the election scheduled for Saturday, 25th February 2023.  Admittedly, it had been concluded already during visits paid by other earlier emissaries sent by the Jagaban Borgu. Wike’s support was in the bag.

The huge voting population of Rivers makes a huge impact in presidential election calculus and its massive oil resources also make Presidents salivate at the prospects of winning the state.

When the elections came, Rivers probably had the most contentious issues on social media, TV stations, and, eventually, the conventional press. Mutilated results sheets, altered voting results, beaten up ad-hoc staff, results sheets discovered in the bush, cries of disenfranchisement, stolen ballot boxes, etc., etc. 

That Obi lost in Rivers was one of the wonders of that election, some argue.  Those who visited on 15th February were declared winners. Obi and Kwankwaso were left wondering what just happened. So were the voters.

The next election was resoundingly won by Fubara of Wike’s party, of which Atiku was the presidential candidate!

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Wike has claimed that his maneuver was designed to bring the presidency to the South, and he has achieved it. He had successfully put sand in Atiku’s eyes and punished the PDP for not allowing him to run for the highest office in the land thereby attempting to return the office of the president to the North immediately after President Buhari’s eight years. 

He was rewarded with a ministerial position.  As minister of the Federal Capital Territory, he also now occupies a position that had appeared over the years to be reserved exclusively for Northerners.

On the role of the FCT minister, no one can argue that Wike has not performed excellently in massive infrastructural development. The loudness and preponderance of the advertising of his projects must count as the most visible across the land.  His performance is giving the Presidency a lot to crow about.

Other ministers must be feeling a sense of exasperation that underwhelms them. But his methods have also caused consternation and pain to a lot of citizens, especially over land matters.

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Public service communication should be less acerbic, threatening, and cantankerous. Some folks have wondered what it would have been were he to have been elected president!

Wike is 57. He cannot replace President Tinubu, who is geared to run for a second term. If the ADC fields a Southerner, which is likely, then the next chance Wike can have to take a shot at the presidency would be in 2039!  That is if the North holds the presidency from 2031 for eight years.

By that time, Wike would be 71, according to records. The Genz, Ratels, Trenches, Revolution Now, and End-SARS folks are not likely to lie low to allow recycled folks to keep running the Nigerian show.

The Obidients, too. Therefore, that Wike will get the mandate at that time is not assured. The best he can hope for would be a VP slot from 2031. Do not ask me in which party! 

People seem to be leaving the PDP for him. In a bizarre maneuver, he could decide to run as a presidential candidate in the rump of the PDP but tell his supporters to vote for the Jaganan. 40-year-old whiskey vituperations could make a presidential candidate feel wary when making the choice of a running mate.

Maximizing the current role, therefore, becomes imperative. If I asked who the Elon Musk equivalent is in Nigeria’s firmament at this time, before he was cut to size, your guess would be as good as mine! Amaechi’s vaunted ambition, just announced, will be pushed off the rails by Wike’s presence in Rivers’ turf. 

As they say, an ant colony without a base does go to war and win!  In my view, as a naïve analyst of political affairs, Wike is working to ensure that he gets a VP slot after this PBAT era and is in a position to have a major voice on who runs for President in 2031. Resource accumulation must be a key part of that strategy. I may well be wrong, after all, what do I know? Lagos. 5th July, 2025

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